As the second half of the cross town series with the Chicago White Sox begins, with Carlos Zambrano taking the mound for the Chicago Cubs, there is no better time than now to talk about the possibility of the Cubs opening day pitcher being dealt in a possible fire sale.
While many fans are calling for the Cubs to move Zambrano, the likelihood of this happening, is not too great, despite the mass potential and talent he would be bringing with him. What would be holding back any potential deal, would not be how much money he will still make with his current deal. In fact, the contract, for a pitcher of Zambrano’s talent, is not unreasonable. He is making a $35.875 Million over the next two years, with a possible player option for the 2013 season worth $19.25 Millions, which is something he must earn. Unlike with the option years Aramis Ramirez has, nothing is guaranteed for Zambrano past the next two years. In order for him to earn his player option for 2013, Zambrano must finish first or second in 2011 Cy Young vote or if he finishes in top 4 in 2012 Cy Young vote and is healthy at end of 2012.
I am not saying Zambrano has no chance to earn that option year, because we have all seen just how good he can be. That is the key to any potential trade the Cubs would be making. Sell him on the potential angle, and see if you can get a team to bite, and make a deal. In this instance, because of how good Zambrano is, was and can be again, the Cubs may not have to eat any money in a deal that would send him to a new home. However, there are two possible hurdles which will likely prevent the Cubs from making any deal.
The first, would be how the Cubs damaged any possible trade value they had in Zambrano, when they moved him out of the rotation, and demoted him to the bullpen. Don’t listen to how this move was spun, they did not throw him into the eighth inning to get some sense of stability. How this can be seen as anything less than a demotion, and a sign of lacking confidence is beyond me. If, as a team, you show signs of little faith in a player, like the Cubs did with Zambrano, how are other teams supposed to have confidence in him? Any and all trade value he may have had, you lost my sending him into short relief. Teams will take that into great consideration when figuring out what to offer for him, and may even try to get the team to eat a majority of his contract, even though he is worth every cent he will make over the next two years,
His deemed value around the league, after the Cubs and Manager Lou Piniella screw things up with the move, is just one stumbling block that must be met. The other, may be even more difficult for the Cubs, and prevent any deal from taking place. Much like everyone else I have covered, Zambrano has a full no trade clause, which means he chooses where he will go and when he will go there. His having control over where he goes, is more of a reason for concern than Alfonso Soriano, Ramirez and Kosuke Fukudome, because Zambrano has stated he would not allow any trade to take place.
If you remember back to the off season, there were rumors of Zambrano being dealt to the New York Mets, and he quickly killed any thought of that happening. Whether or not he meant he would block any trade, or just the one to the Mets I cant say. However, from the comments he made last off season, you get the impression that he will be here until the end of his contract if he has the power to do so. Which is exactly what he has the power to do.
While I am sure the Cubs would love to get Zambrano off the books, especially to fill his role with some highly touted prospects in the minors, the thought may be greater than the possibility.
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